Wrangle the Top “Gray Rhinos” of 2023

Scenario analysis is crucial to the board's ability to stay on top of major risk trends.

The beginning of each new year is high season for listing the risks that are most likely to keep executives and board directors up at night. But like streamers on the floor, empty champagne bottles, and dried-out holiday greenery, most are quickly cast aside and all but forgotten. 

That is a pity, because these lists can be a helpful exercise when used properly. Regularly taking stock of the probable risks facing your organization helps to keep from getting trampled by “gray rhinos,” which may be charging right at you or grazing on the horizon. A “gray rhino” is a highly probable, high impact, yet surprisingly often neglected threat. Unlike the unforeseeable, even unimaginable black swan, gray rhinos are not random surprises but rather obvious, clear and present dangers. They are the subject of headlines and many discussions, and even some actions, but too often are not dealt with in time or effectively. 

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About the Author(s)

James Lam

James Lam is a director at FAIR Institute and RiskLens, where he is also chair of the audit committee. He is president of James Lam & Associates Inc. and the author of Implementing Enterprise Risk Management: From Methods to Applications.


Michele Wucker

Michele Wucker is a strategic advisor and author of The Gray Rhino and You Are What You Risk and on the faculty of the DCRO Risk Governance Institute.


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